Congress Just Supercharged the Dollar's Downfall

Confiscation, Weaponization, and De-Dollarization

“The dollar’s role as the world's primary reserve currency is a boon for the United States but a bane for the rest of the world.”

~ Barry Eichengreen

The U.S. Senate has predictably voted to give $95 billion to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, just three days after the House of Representatives green-lit the assistance in a rare Saturday session.

But beyond the big spending, there was a little something tucked into the Ukrainian aid bill that'll have major implications for you as an American: the confiscation of Russian dollar assets.

The passage of the Rebuilding Economic Prosperity and Opportunity (REPO) Act, as it's called, adds a whole new dimension to the story that Matt Smith brought to your attention on Monday.

The Dollar Weapon

Once President Biden signs it into law, he'll gain the authority to seize more than $6 billion in Russian assets held by U.S. institutions.

Now, in case you're wondering why Russia held these billions of dollars outside of Russia, it's because that's what countries do when they have surplus dollars; they put them to work in the safe and trustworthy nation of America.

The joke's on you, Russia…

But the $6 billion is just the tip of the iceberg.

You see, it's not about the amount; it's about how the U.S. sets a precedent for other Western countries to confiscate the nearly $300 billion in Russian state assets currently frozen under their jurisdiction.

To be fair, it’s not the first instance of the U.S. government's "weaponization" of the dollar… far from it.

But it has become especially pronounced in recent years, targeting adversaries such as Iran, Cuba, Venezuela, Afghanistan, North Korea, China, and, of course, Russia.

But it never affects just these countries alone...

In 2022, when the U.S. hit Russia with unprecedented sanctions, including removing many of its major banks from SWIFT, numerous African, Asian, and South American currencies plunged to historic lows against the dollar. This led to horrific economic crises in countries like Sri Lanka.

Others like Egypt, Pakistan, and Ghana ended up having to ask the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to bail them out in 2023.

These countries had borrowed heavily in U.S. dollars. As the dollar strengthened, they couldn't afford the repayments.

That's one aspect. But the use of tailor-made legislation by Congress to target a major country's assets is a whole other ballgame. It sends the message that rules can be bent and nobody is safe. It further alienates the world. And it will absolutely backfire.

And, as I go to press, a report emerged that the U.S. is already targeting Chinese banks it believes are aiding Russia's war effort. According to WSJ:

The U.S. is drafting sanctions that threaten to cut some Chinese banks off from the global financial system, arming Washington’s top envoy with diplomatic leverage that officials hope will stop Beijing’s commercial support of Russia’s military production, according to people familiar with the matter.

De-dollarization on Steroids

It should be evident to anyone with half a brain that as the U.S. prepares to confiscate Russian assets, the world will push for more de-dollarization.

Why? Because they understand that if their foreign policy is not aligned with that of the U.S., they will be sanctioned into oblivion. So, they will do anything in their power to get away from the greenback.

And de-dollarization is already well underway, with China and Russia being the main drivers behind it. From making deals that bypass the dollar to starting oil trades in yuan, they have been chipping away at the dollar’s global dominance.

But now, it will go into hyperdrive.

You see, in 2024, Russia chairs the BRICS bloc. Its main focus? Developing an international alternative to the U.S.-centric SWIFT financial payment system.

A couple of facts you need to know about the bloc…

• BRICS collectively hold 32% of the world's GDP, surpassing the 30% held by the G7 countries.

• BRICS represent nearly half of the world's population.

• BRICS nations produce about 42% of global crude oil output.

It's fair to say that BRICS isn’t just any bunch of countries.

Now, BRICS isn’t starting from scratch on an alternative financial system. China set up the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System in 2015. And since Janet Yellen's visit to China earlier this month and her threats of sanctions and trade barriers, China’s been burning the midnight oil to make it even better.

Russia has its own network for transmitting financial messages, with more than 150 participants in 20 countries.

Now both countries will work together to integrate these two systems across the entire bloc as part of their efforts to create an alternative to SWIFT.

If they succeed, the U.S. dollar will face a direct threat. Payments for crude oil, gas, and other natural resources between China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and other bloc members won't be made in dollars.

This would deal a major blow to the petrodollar. The demand for the dollar would plummet, jeopardizing its role as the global reserve currency.

Do They Even Care? 

It may sound like a silly question, but I often find myself wondering about it... And by "care," I don't just mean caring about ordinary people like you and me — because they clearly don't — I mean do politicians care at all?

If the dollar loses its status as the world's primary reserve currency, what do they think will happen to the U.S. economy?

Don’t forget, we’re talking about a country that’s been piling on ever-growing debt, with around one-third of it held by foreign nations, no less.

Suddenly, you can't just print money out of thin air without it leading straight to hyperinflation. And if you can't do that, how do you cover your out-of-control deficits and surging government spending?

Sure, you could still borrow, but with foreigners losing faith in your debt, your interest costs will go through the roof. And, at this point, they'll be more interested in putting their dollars in real assets anyway. Wholesale.

Doug Casey: Our main export has been dollars. So, now there are tens of trillions of dollars that are outside the U.S. owned by non-Americans, that don't have to own those dollars. And when they get scared enough of those dollars, they will dump them. And when they can't dump them to each other anymore at lower values, those dollars will come back to the U.S. where they'll buy stuff that Americans now own. Like titles to stocks and real estate and so forth. So, the average American is in for a very rude awakening in the next few years. We're going to have lots of foreigners that are not going to want to get stuck holding dollars.

Taken together, these factors are bound to cause a colossal collapse.

To be fair, global central banks currently still hold about 58% of their foreign reserves in U.S. dollars. The rest is in euros (19.6%), British pounds (4.8%), Japanese yen (6%), and Chinese yuan (2.9%).

But, as impressive as this 58% figure sounds, it’s actually the lowest in 25 years for how much central banks are keeping in dollars.

I'm struggling to see how any of this will benefit the politicians in Congress. But then again, I think it might just be too easy to go with Hanlon's razor:

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

Regards,

Lau Vegys