Lau - I was that reader - "As one reader once pointed out somewhere in the comments section, card balances aren't that important if we pay them off at the end of each month—and what we should really be watching are delinquencies."
Thank you for keeping us up to date on this. I don't think I said that card balances aren't important, but just that delinquencies are more important. A 50% increase is indeed concerning. Inflation is still with us, and the poor and the middle class are really feeling the strain. The elite rich love it - their assets just go up and up.
But as you said, the banks are on thin ice - and you didn't even get into (this time) the huge paper losses they're sitting on in their bond portfolios. If things start to hit the fan, those paper losses will start becoming real losses.
P.S. I didn’t go into detail on that (the paper losses), but I did mention this:
"Keep in mind, all of this comes at a time when banks are sitting on hundreds of billions in unrealized losses, facing commercial real estate problems, and watching their credit ratings get downgraded left and right (while their shares hover near multi-year lows)."
When interest rates started rising, bond prices dropped. As an example, Bank of America's paper loss on its bond portfolio reached $110 billion as of March ‘24. I don’t have an update, but no doubt it’s still significant, even though interest rates have eased since then.
Biden & Powell created this mess by artificially inflating the cash supply with fiat currency & their great Covid Cash Giveaway. I have no doubt that the bubble is about to burst again, the current prices of homes for sale across the country is too high, like in 08, couple that with the emerging credit card default nightmare, and 2008 is starting to look like it was child’s play compared to what’s been swept under the rug by the current joke of an administration.
Lau - I was that reader - "As one reader once pointed out somewhere in the comments section, card balances aren't that important if we pay them off at the end of each month—and what we should really be watching are delinquencies."
Thank you for keeping us up to date on this. I don't think I said that card balances aren't important, but just that delinquencies are more important. A 50% increase is indeed concerning. Inflation is still with us, and the poor and the middle class are really feeling the strain. The elite rich love it - their assets just go up and up.
But as you said, the banks are on thin ice - and you didn't even get into (this time) the huge paper losses they're sitting on in their bond portfolios. If things start to hit the fan, those paper losses will start becoming real losses.
P.S. I didn’t go into detail on that (the paper losses), but I did mention this:
"Keep in mind, all of this comes at a time when banks are sitting on hundreds of billions in unrealized losses, facing commercial real estate problems, and watching their credit ratings get downgraded left and right (while their shares hover near multi-year lows)."
You’re right, Al. It was you! :) Thanks for weighing in, as always. I agree with everything you wrote here.
What would those real losses start to look like, I wonder?
When interest rates started rising, bond prices dropped. As an example, Bank of America's paper loss on its bond portfolio reached $110 billion as of March ‘24. I don’t have an update, but no doubt it’s still significant, even though interest rates have eased since then.
Biden & Powell created this mess by artificially inflating the cash supply with fiat currency & their great Covid Cash Giveaway. I have no doubt that the bubble is about to burst again, the current prices of homes for sale across the country is too high, like in 08, couple that with the emerging credit card default nightmare, and 2008 is starting to look like it was child’s play compared to what’s been swept under the rug by the current joke of an administration.