Love this! I’m Harrison, an ex fine dining industry line cook. My stack "The Secret Ingredient" adapts hit restaurant recipes (mostly NYC and L.A.) for easy home cooking.
You’re right—the ratio can move either way. But in this environment, a sharp drop in gold feels much less likely than a silver rally. And the Fed hasn’t even fired up the money printer yet.
Excellent article! Right now, silver in April 2025 is only given credit for its industrial use and the 50% for monetary value is overlooked. As usual, gold… or the money of the rich moves up first and then silver, the money of the middle class for centuries. Platinum is also cheap but is 90% industrial. Heck, any metal trading below its 2011 average price is dirt cheap.
As usual a very good article and insight into the issue. The question I have about the current situation: China appears to be involved in the price control- do you think their power, their national mining activities and their current position ( unknown but certainly very high) could allow them to maintain this ratio for quite a while longer?
I’m guessing the thinking here is that China has an interest in steering silver more toward industrial use—which they definitely need a lot of. (If you had something else in mind, let me know.). Well, there are really only two ways to control the ratio: suppress silver or push up gold. I think we can both agree it’s pretty safe to rule out the latter, since they’re clearly trying to quietly build reserves (without pushing the price higher).
But suppressing silver isn’t easy either. Even for China, most silver comes as a byproduct of mining other metals, so they can’t just dial production up or down on a whim. It’s tied to demand for those other metals and broader market forces. And because silver has heavy industrial use, its price is driven by real global demand. That makes it even harder to manipulate—at least in a sustained way.
Time to buy more Physical Silver and Silver miners! Very very rare to be 103 - 1. When Silver closes the month above $35 we are off to the races. Way too much industrial demand for Silver to stay here much more than the end of this year. The 900 million oz annual Silver deficit combined with the LBMA and COMEX vaults being raided monthly should provide all the ignition needed to unleash the biggest move to the upside ever. One just needs to be patient and keep stacking at these low levels. Once we move past the $35/oz level we will never see $30+ oz Silver again.
The bullion banks lost control of gold futures due to massive central bank physical gold purchases but still control the silver futures action. They will eventually loose the silver futures when physical silver shortages overwhelm them and force them to cover their massive shorts. It is a when, not an if question.
Great historical perspective on the GSR and what it typically portends. Silver is pretty ignored or hated by the masses right now, seems like it usually wears out and exasperates everyone as much as possible then it explodes for those once-in-a-decade amazing moves. Locked and loaded with some silver juniors and some majors/mid-tiers, and some AGQ for leverage to the spot price. Fingers crossed, good luck all
Great article! Legendary investor Jim Rogers keeps buying silver. As per Jim Rogers:
“Everybody should own gold and silver. If I were buying one today, I would buy silver because it's cheaper.” https://ffus.substack.com/p/jim-rogers-buys-silver
To put it another way, silver is priced 90 odd % under its actual value. Practically free, if one wants to be hyperbolic.
Love this! I’m Harrison, an ex fine dining industry line cook. My stack "The Secret Ingredient" adapts hit restaurant recipes (mostly NYC and L.A.) for easy home cooking.
check us out:
https://thesecretingredient.substack.com
Why cant gold go down to move closer to 60 GSR?
Even If silver goes up ~10% to $35, then gold could fall around $2100?
Regardless, I have a crap ton of both metals as there is limited downside to both....
You’re right—the ratio can move either way. But in this environment, a sharp drop in gold feels much less likely than a silver rally. And the Fed hasn’t even fired up the money printer yet.
Yep. Thats the bet I placed.
Figuring gold has at least another 20% up. Then silver shoots up like a rocket a few months later to $50 plus
Excellent article! Right now, silver in April 2025 is only given credit for its industrial use and the 50% for monetary value is overlooked. As usual, gold… or the money of the rich moves up first and then silver, the money of the middle class for centuries. Platinum is also cheap but is 90% industrial. Heck, any metal trading below its 2011 average price is dirt cheap.
Thanks, Ryan! Agreed on all points.
As usual a very good article and insight into the issue. The question I have about the current situation: China appears to be involved in the price control- do you think their power, their national mining activities and their current position ( unknown but certainly very high) could allow them to maintain this ratio for quite a while longer?
Thanks, Juergen!
I’m guessing the thinking here is that China has an interest in steering silver more toward industrial use—which they definitely need a lot of. (If you had something else in mind, let me know.). Well, there are really only two ways to control the ratio: suppress silver or push up gold. I think we can both agree it’s pretty safe to rule out the latter, since they’re clearly trying to quietly build reserves (without pushing the price higher).
But suppressing silver isn’t easy either. Even for China, most silver comes as a byproduct of mining other metals, so they can’t just dial production up or down on a whim. It’s tied to demand for those other metals and broader market forces. And because silver has heavy industrial use, its price is driven by real global demand. That makes it even harder to manipulate—at least in a sustained way.
Time to buy more Physical Silver and Silver miners! Very very rare to be 103 - 1. When Silver closes the month above $35 we are off to the races. Way too much industrial demand for Silver to stay here much more than the end of this year. The 900 million oz annual Silver deficit combined with the LBMA and COMEX vaults being raided monthly should provide all the ignition needed to unleash the biggest move to the upside ever. One just needs to be patient and keep stacking at these low levels. Once we move past the $35/oz level we will never see $30+ oz Silver again.
The bullion banks lost control of gold futures due to massive central bank physical gold purchases but still control the silver futures action. They will eventually loose the silver futures when physical silver shortages overwhelm them and force them to cover their massive shorts. It is a when, not an if question.
Great historical perspective on the GSR and what it typically portends. Silver is pretty ignored or hated by the masses right now, seems like it usually wears out and exasperates everyone as much as possible then it explodes for those once-in-a-decade amazing moves. Locked and loaded with some silver juniors and some majors/mid-tiers, and some AGQ for leverage to the spot price. Fingers crossed, good luck all