'Not an Optional Thing'

Why Trump's Budget Balancing Promise Matters More Than You May Think

As I watched President Trump's address to the nation yesterday, something stood out. He was preparing to discuss his $5 million gold card proposal for U.S. citizenship and began with this:

In the near future, I want to do what has not been done in 24 years—balance the federal budget. We're going to balance it.

Now, this is a pretty significant claim. Over the years, not many U.S. presidents have promised to balance the budget—and even fewer have pulled it off.

Just take a look at the chart below—since 1970, the U.S. government has almost always run deficits, with hardly any breaks. And each time, it piled on more and more debt. Every single time.

Even the last so-called "balanced budget" under Bill Clinton—which Trump seems to be pointing to with that 24-year comment—was largely the result of accounting smoke and mirrors. And the debt still went up during those years. Plus, Clinton never actually promised to balance it. He got there more by luck than design.

So, yes, Trump's budget-balancing pledge is extraordinary, but can he really make it happen?

I’m not raising this question because I doubt the idea itself—though, honestly, anyone looking at the U.S. government’s track record might have reason to—but to highlight why it’s become so critical. As Elon Musk said at Trump’s first cabinet meeting:

We simply cannot sustain our country on $2 trillion dollar deficits. The interest on the national debt now exceeds DOD spending. If this continues, the country will become de facto bankrupt. It's not an optional thing. It's an essential thing.

The truth is, nobody knows for sure if Trump can deliver on this historic challenge. But he's at least confronting the fiscal reality others pretend doesn't exist.

And that reality is dire (which is why all the Democrat hand-wringing about Elon, DOGE, and just about everything the new sheriff in town is up to feels outright sinister right now). Let's take a closer look…

House on Fire

Every six months, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) releases a rolling 10-year "Budget and Economic Outlook." Most people ignore reading material of this sort, but I look forward to them because they show just how badly governments can mess things up.

If you open the most recent report, and scroll to Page 20, you'll find Table B-1: CBO’s Baseline Budget Projections. Look for the line labeled "Total Deficit." These are government deficits, and I've highlighted them in the next image.

The first thing that jumps at you in that table is this: according to the government’s own numbers, deficits keep getting worse. They start at $1.71 trillion in 2026 and climb to around $2.5 trillion by 2035. That’s a jump of about 50% in ten years.

Alarmingly, this also means that the total cumulative deficit between 2026 and 2035 would hit an astounding $21.8 trillion.

If this doesn’t scream that the U.S. is barreling toward fiscal disaster, I’m not sure what does. And remember, these are the government's own figures—almost certainly sanitized to avoid causing public panic. Just a year ago, this same report pegged the 2024 deficit at about 1.5 trillion (see page 10). Now we know it’s $1.83 trillion (see above). What’s an extra $300 billion, right?

But even if we take the CBO report at face value, it gets worse from there.

The CBO numbers show that by 2035, the deficit will hit 6.1% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Here’s their exact wording:

In 2035, the adjusted deficit equals 6.1 percent of GDP—significantly more than the 3.8 percent that deficits have averaged over the past 50 years.

That's bad enough, but what they don't tell you is this: since the Great Depression, deficits have only jumped over 6.1% during World War II and its fallout, the 2007-2009 financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic.

And here’s the thing. The CBO isn't expecting any major crises over the next decade. They're not banking on the possibility of a war, a new financial meltdown, or another pandemic. On the contrary, the CBO report’s packed with optimistic assumptions about the U.S. economy—lower interest rates, tame inflation, and decent GDP growth.

This tells me that if anything goes wrong, that $21.8 trillion forecast will turn far uglier. And you know what? If nothing gets done, it almost definitely will.

So, yes, Musk is dead-on when he says getting the government’s house in order isn’t optional anymore—it’s a must. Whether President Trump can pull it off remains to be seen, but at least he and his team understand the stakes.

Regards,

Lau Vegys

P.S. Did you know about 2,000 metric tons of gold poured into the U.S. since December? That’s 64 million ounces—nearly a quarter of all the gold America claims in its official reserves. Matt Smith is convinced this ties into Trump’s plan to overhaul the American economy and monetary system. He says it’s unlike anything we’ve ever witnessed. Click here for details.